Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts
Seasonal forecasts of hurricane activity benefit financial decision making and basic risk awareness from tropical storms.
North Atlantic hurricane activity varies substantially from year to year, including 5-fold variations in annual basin-scale Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which integrates the duration and intensity of Named Storms. . The frequencies of U.S. and Florida landfalling hurricanes also changes sporadically, with recent decades witnessing multiple Category 3+ hurricanes in consecutive years of 2004 and 2005, two of the most active seasons of the past century, but also multi-year periods of quiescence, including an absence of major hurricane and Florida landfalls from 2006 to 2015.
CFAN’s seasonal forecasts for Atlantic tropical cyclone activity are based on a breakthrough in understanding of the impact of global climate dynamics on Atlantic hurricane activity.
CFAN has identified skillful new predictors for the number of U.S. landfalling hurricanes and the seasonal ACE. In particular, CFAN’s forecasts use new predictors that potentially provide greater prediction skill for years when there is no clear signal from ENSO (El Nino/La Nina).
CFAN issues seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic in November, March, May and July. Summaries of the June and August forecasts are publicly available. Complete technical forecast reports and the December – April forecasts are available via paid subscription. Contact us
Archived Forecast Reports