Tropical Cyclones

CFAN's scientific team includes some of the world's leading authorities on tropical meteorology and hurricanes. Of direct relevance to our tropical cyclone forecast product, CFAN's scientists are advancing research on:


  • Formation and development of African easterly waves, which seed 85% of major–hurricanes in the North Atlantic

  • Advancement of ensemble hurricane prediction methods

  • Development of a new model of hurricane-induced tornadoes

  • Climate dynamics of hurricanes, on seasonal to decadal time scales




Belanger, JI, JA Curry, M Jelinek, 2017: A climatology of easterly waves in the tropical Western Hemisphere. Geoscience Data Journal 

Kim H-M., Lee MI, Webster PJ, Kim D, Yoo JH, 2013: A physical basis for the probabilistic prediction of the accumulated tropical cyclone kinetic energy in the western North Pacific. Journal of Climate. (pdf)


Belanger, J. I., P. J. Webster, J. A. Curry, 2012: Extended Prediction of North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones, Weather & Forecasting (pdf)


Kim, H-M., P.J. Webster, and J. A. Curry 2010: Modulation of North Pacific tropical cyclone activity by the three phases of ENSO. Journal of Climate (pdf)


Kim, H-M. and P.J. Webster, 2010: Extended range seasonal hurricane forecasts using a hybrid dynamical-statistical model. Geophysical Research Letters (pdf)


Belanger, J., Curry J.A., Webster P.J., 2010: Predictability of North Atlantic tropical cyclones on intraseasonal time scales. Monthly Weather Review (pdf)

Agudelo PA, Hoyos CD, Curry JA, Webster, PJ, 2010: Probabilistic discrimination between large-scale environments of intensifying and decaying African Easterly Waves.  Climate Dynamics (pdf)


Done, J., G, J, Holland, P. J. Webster, 2010: The Role of Wave Accumulation in Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the Tropical North Atlantic. Climate Dynamics (pdf)


Holland, G., J. I. Belanger, A. M. Fritz, 2010: A Revised Model for Radial Profiles of Hurricane Winds, Monthly Weather Review (pdf)


Kim, H. M., P. J. Webster, and J. A. Curry, 2009: Impact of shifting patterns of Pacific Ocean warming events on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone. Science, 325, 77-80. (link)


Belanger, J. I., J. A. Curry, and C. D. Hoyos, 2009: Variability in Tornado Frequency Associated With U.S. Landfalling Tropical Cyclones, Geophysical Research Letters (pdf)


Webster, P.J., 2008: Myanmar's deadly daffodil. Nature Geoscience (pdf)


Hoyos, CD, PA Agudelo, P. Webster and JA Curry, 2006: Deconvolution of the factors contributing to the increase in global hurricane intensity. Science (pdf)


Webster, PJ, GJ Holland, JA Curry, H-R Chang, 2005: Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration and intensity in a warming environment. Science. (pdf)