CFAN, Climate Forecast Applications Network, LLC.

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Subseasonal and Seasonal Climate Variability

CFAN scientists are conducting foundational research on understanding subseasonal and seasonal climatology.  Of direct relevance to CFAN’s subseasonal and seasonal forecast products, CFAN’s scientists are advancing research on:


  • Assessing the predictability of ENSO and the spring predictability barrier

  • Understanding intraseasonal oscillations, including the Madden Julian Oscillation, and assessing their impact on subseasonal predictability and predictions

  • Tropical and monsoon dynamics




Hirata, F, PJ Webster, 2018:  Intraseasonal dependence, wave energy accumulation and the formation of intense South Atlantic Convergence Zones.  Quarterly J. Royal Meteorological Society, submitted (link)

Webster, PJ, 2018:  Meridional Circulations, Jets, Westerly Ducts, Upper-Tropospheric Troughs, Great Cloud Bands and Extratropical-Tropical Interaction.  Invited seminar, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Atmospheric Sciences & Global Change, June 21 2018 (link)

Curry, JA, J Johnstone, PJ Webster, V Toma, 2018:  Beyond ENSO: new signals of seasonal predictability.  Weather Risk Management Association Annual Meeting, Miami, FL June 8, 2018.  (link)

Webster, PJ, V Toma, J. Johnstone, F Hirata, 2018:  ENSO: towards breaching the springtime predictability barrier. Workshop on Seasonal to Decadal Prediction, Boulder, CO.  (link)

Toma, V, JA Curry, J Marks, P Webster, 2018:  Advances in operational subseasonal  prediction of heat and cold waves for U.S. cities.  Workshop on Seasonal to Decadal Prediction, Boulder, CO.  (link) 

Hirata, F, V Toma, PJ Webster, 2018: Updated quantification of ENSO influence on statistical distribution of surface variables.  Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society, Austin, TX.  (link) 

Toma, V, JA Curry, PJ Webster, 2017:  Towards a Multi-Model Subseasonal Forecast of U.S. Weather.  American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, Seattle, Washington. (link)


Ortega S, PJ Webster, V Toma, HR Chang, 2018: The effect of potential vorticity fluxes on the circulation of the tropical troposphere. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (link)

Kim HM, D Kim, F. Vitart, VE Toma, JS Kug, PJ Webster, 2016: MJO propagation across the Maritime Continent in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system, Journal of Climate


Ortega, S, PJ Webster, V Toma, HR Chang, 2016: Quasi-Biweekly Oscillations of the South Asian Monsoon: An observed link between the upper and lower level variability. Climate Dynamics (submitted)




Hirata, FE and AM Grimm, 2016: The role of synoptic and intraseasonal anomalies in the life cycle of summer rainfall extremes over South America.  Climate Dynamics (link)


Hirata FE, Webster PJ and Toma VE: 2013: Distinct manifestations of austral summer tropical intraseasonal oscillations. Geophysical Research Letters (pdf)  


Kim, HM, CD Hoyos, PJ Webster and IS Kang, 2010: Ocean-atmosphere coupling and the boreal winter MJO. Climate Dynamics (pdf)


Kim, H-M, CD Hoyos, PJ Webster, I-S. Kang, 2008: Sensitivity of MJO simulation and predictability of sea surface temperature variability. Journal of Climate (pdf)


Webster, PJ, and CD Hoyos, 2010: Beyond the spring barrier? Nature Geoscience (pdf)

Wang, B, PJ Webster, K Kikuchi, T Yasunari and Y Qi, 2006: Boreal summer quasi-monthly oscillation in the global tropics, Climate Dynamics (pdf)


Agudelo PA, Curry JA, Hoyos CD, PJ Webster, 2006: Transition between suppressed and active phases of intraseasonal oscillations in the Indo-Pacific warm pool. Journal of Climate (pdf)


Halkides, DJ, W Han and PJ Webster, 2006: Effects of the seasonal cycle on the development and termination of the Indian Ocean Zonal Dipole Mode. Journal of Geophysical Research (pdf)


Agudelo PA, Curry JA, Hoyos CD, PJ Webster, 2006: Transition between suppressed and active phases of intraseasonal oscillations in the Indo-Pacific warm pool. Journal of Climate (pdf)


Han, W, PJ Webster, R Lukas, P Hacker and A Hu, 2004: Impact of Atmospheric Intraseasonal Variability in the Indian Ocean: Low-Frequency Rectification in Equatorial Surface Current and Transport. Journal of Physical Oceanograpy (pdf)


Webster, PJ and CD Hoyos, 2004: Prediction of Monsoon Rainfall and River Discharge on 15-30 day Time Scales. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (pdf)