CFAN, Climate Forecast Applications Network, LLC.

                                                       © 2019.  All Rights Reserved 

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 Telephone:  USA  +1.404.803.2012

 Email:  info@cfanclimate.com 

Predictions & Predictability

CFAN scientists conduct foundational research on weather and climate predictability and prediction, ranging from theoretical analyses of predictability to prediction skill assessments of weather and climate models. Of direct relevance to forecast products, CFAN's scientists are advancing research on:

  • Predictability of ENSO and the spring predictability barrier

  • Improving prediction skill of intraseasonal (15-40 day) variability and assessing the impact of the Madden Julian Oscillation on intraseasonal and seasonal predictability and prediction

  • Evaluating the predictability and prediction skill of seasonal forecast models and decadal climate model simulations

  • Advancing the interpretation of ensemble forecast

 

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SELECTED RECENT PUBLICATIONS  

 

 

Kim, HM, PJ Webster, VE Toma, et al., 2014:  Predictability and prediction skill of the MJO in two operational forecasting systems.  Journal of Climate (link)

 

Kim, HM, PJ Webster, JA Curry, 2012: Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast Part I: Northern Hemisphere Winter. Climate

Dynamics (pdf)

 

Kim, HM, PJ Webster, JA Curry, 2012: Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast Part I: Asian monsoon. Climate Dynamics (pdf)

 

Kim, HM, PJ Webster, JA Curry 2012: Multi-model decadal predictions in CMIP5 decadal hindcast experiment. Geophysical Research Letters (pdf)

 

Liu, J. J.A. Curry et al. 2012: Impact of declining sea ice on Northern Hemisphere snowfall. Proc. of the National Academies of Science (link)

 

Webster P. J. and J. Jian 2011: Environmental prediction, risk assessment and extreme events: adaptation strategies for the developing world. Phil. Trans. Royal  Society (link)

Webster, P. J., and C. D. Hoyos, 2010: Beyond the spring barrier? Nature Geoscience (pdf)

 

Kim, H, C. D. Hoyos, P. J. Webster and In-Sik Kang, 2010: Ocean-atmosphere coupling and the boreal winter MJO. Climate Dynamics (pdf)

 

Kim, H-M, CD Hoyos, PJ Webster, I-S. Kang, 2008: Sensitivity of MJO simulation and predictability of sea surface temperature variability. Journal of Climate (pdf)

 

Agudelo, P. A., C. D. Hoyos, P. J. Webster and J. A. Curry, 2008: Application of a serial extended forecast experiment using the ECMWF model to interpret the predictive skill of tropical intraseasonal variability. Climate Dynamics. (pdf)

 

Agudelo PA, Curry JA, Hoyos CD, PJ Webster, 2006: Transition between suppressed and active phases of intraseasonal oscillations in the Indo-Pacific warm pool. Journal of Climate (pdf)