Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) predicts a below average Atlantic hurricane season
(Reno, NV) Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) predicts a below average 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. Their staff predicts a 60% chance of a normal season and a 40% chance of a below normal season. They predict an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 73 [range 43 to 97], which is well below the average for the current active period since 1995.
CFAN Senior Scientist Dr. Jim Johnstone leads CFAN’s seasonal hurricane forecasts. He said: “There are multiple signals that clearly point to below average activity for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.”
North Atlantic hurricane activity varies greatly from year to year, including 5-fold variations in the Accumulated Cyclone Energy. The ACE integrates the number, duration and intensity of Named Storms. The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season had the highest ACE value (223) since 2005 and ranks in the top 5 years since 1900. ACE correlates with hurricane frequency and intensity during a hurricane season.
This is the first forecast of CFAN’s new model for seasonal forecasting of Atlantic hurricane activity in April. It is based on a new understanding of the complex relationships among the global and Atlantic circulation patterns. CFAN’s April prediction is lower than the December forecast.
CFAN’s President, Dr. Judith Curry, said: “CFAN’s state-of-the-art forecast tools provide skill at longer forecast lead times. In addition to seasonal forecasts, our real-time forecasts for active storms and monthly forecasts help businesses and governments make the difficult decisions needed to respond to hurricane threats.”
The Forecast Summary Report provides more information. Click here to download a copy. CFAN’s detailed technical reports are available through paid subscription.
Businesses and governments around the world rely on tools from Climate Forecast Applications Network to manage weather and climate risks. CFAN was founded in 2006 by Judith Curry and Peter Webster. It was launched under the VentureLab program of Georgia Tech’s Enterprise Innovation Institute. CFAN’s 9 Ph.D. scientists build the most advanced commercially available forecasting tools. CFAN’s research has been assisted by grants from NOAA, Department of Defense, and the Department of Energy.
James Johnstone, Senior Scientist
Judith Curry, President