CFAN, Climate Forecast Applications Network, LLC.

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 Telephone:  USA  +1.404.803.2012

 Email:  info@cfanclimate.com 

News

News Releases

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CFAN continues to predict an active Atlantic hurricane season

(Reno, NV 8/12/19)  CFAN predicts ACE of 150, 8 hurricanes, and 2 U.S. landfalls  [link]

 

Congressional testimony:  Contending with Natural Disasters in the Wake of Climate Change

(Reno, NV, 6/12/19)  CFAN President Judith Curry’s testimony to the House Committee on Oversight and Reform [link]

Evaluation of CFAN’s probabilistic heat wave forecasts

(Atlanta, GA 5/30/19)  Overview of CFAN’s probabilistic heat wave forecasts, including recent verification statistics [link]

CFAN’s May forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season

(Reno, NV 5/22/19)  CFAN predicts ACE of 167 and 8 hurricanes [link]

 

CFAN’s ENSO forecast for 2019

(Reno, NV 3/25/19) CFAN’s 2019 ENSO forecast is for a transition away from El Niño conditions. The forecast for Sept-Oct-Nov 2019 calls for 60% probability of ENSO neutral conditions, with 40% probability of weak El Niño conditions. [link]

CFAN predicts an active Atlantic hurricane season (Reno, NV 4/4/19)  CFAN predicts an ACE of 125, 7 hurricanes, and 2 U.S. landfalling hurricanes.  [link]

CFAN Special Report on Sea Level Rise & Climate Change

 (Reno, NV  11/27/18)  This Report assesses the scientific basis for projections of future sea level rise.  [link to report] [link to full news release]

Track forecast verification analysis for Hurricane Florence

(Reno, NV, 9/27/18)  Track forecast verification shows CFAN's forecast performed best beyond 3 days, with a 7 day track error of 130 miles.  [link to report]

Hurricane Florence: climate dynamics context

(Reno, NV, 9/18/18)  CFAN's President Judith Curry provides a comprehensive analysis of the weather and climate dynamics of Hurricane Florence, including strategies for assessing possible role of human-caused global warming.

[Link to article ] 

Advances in operational subseasonal prediction of heat and cold waves (Boulder, CO, 9/17/18)  Description and evaluation of CFAN's heat/cold wave forecasts for U.S. cities. CFAN presentation at the Seasonal to Decadal Conference hosted by the World Climate Research Programme. 

[Link to presentation]

ENSO: Towards breaching the springtime predictability barrier

(Boulder, CO, 9/17/18)  Assessment of ENSO forecast skill from seasonal climate models.  Identification of new predictors with longer lead time.  CFAN presentation at the Seasonal to Decadal Conference hosted by the World Climate Research Programme.  [Link to presentation]

Predictability of phase shifts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (Boulder, CO 9/17/2018)  A shift from the current warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) would have substantial impacts for U.S. and European weather, and particularly for Atlantic hurricanes. CFAN presentation at the Seasonal to Decadal Conference hosted by the World Climate Research Programme.

[Link to presentation] 

New article on Climate Uncertainty and Risk  (Reno, NV, 8/26/18)  CFAN's President Judith Curry has published a new article on climate uncertainty and risk.  The article integrates perspectives from climate modeling, philosophy of science and risk management. The objective is to explore the kinds of evidence and reasoning that can help inform decision makers as to whether and how they should use climate models for different applications.  [Link to article] 

Verification of CFAN's new subseasonal forecast product for U.S. city temperatures (Reno, NV, 8/21/18)  CFAN's new subseasonal forecast product is now operational.  This includes twice weekly daily forecasts of Tmax, Tmin out to 35 days.  [link to report]

Verification of CFAN's U.S. seasonal temperature forecasts

(Reno, NV, 8/16/18)  Verification analysis of CFAN's new statistical forecast method for U.S. seasonal temperature forecasts at 3-4 month lead times, for Q1/Q2 2018.  [link to report]

Verification statistics for CFAN's tropical cyclone landfall wind fields (Reno, NV, Jun 9, 2018)  Wind speed verification analyses are provided for 2-D wind fields (5 mi resolution) for periods 12-72 hours before landfall, for Florida landfalls of Hurricanes Hermine, Matthew and Irma.  [link to presentation] 

Beyond ENSO:  new signals of seasonal climate predictability

(Miami, FL, 8 June, 2018)   CFAN's President Judith Curry gave an invited presentation at the Weather Risk Management Association (WRMA) annual meeting in Miami.  The talk presents a new vision that integrates global model forecasts with data mining and climate dynamics analysis.  This vision underpins CFAN's new developments in seasonal forecasting

[link to presentation] 

CFAN continues to predict below average 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

(Reno, NV, 4 June, 2018)  Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) predicts a below average 2018 Atlantic hurricane season: 4 hurricanes, 1 to 2 major hurricanes, total ACE of 63, and 0 to 1 US landfalls. 

[link to full report]   

CFAN takes the lead in the race to provide better forecasts of hurricane paths

 (Reno, NV, 11 April 2018) Public and private sector scientists are racing to provide hurricane forecasts that provide better warnings. In 2017, Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) provided more accurate Atlantic hurricane track forecasts than those of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and the official forecasts of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center.

[link to full News Release]

Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) predicts

a below average Atlantic hurricane season

(Reno, NV 5 April 2018) Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) predicts a below average 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. Their staff predicts a 60% chance of a normal season and a 40% chance of a below normal season. They predict an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 73 [range 43 to 97], which is well below the average for the current active period since 1995. 

[link to full News Release]

Judith Curry Named to Top 50 Women in STEM

(Reno, NV February 1, 2018) The Best Schools has named CFAN President Judith Curry to The Top 50 Women in STEM. [link to article]

[link to full News Release]

Peter Webster Symposium at the Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society

On  9 January 2018, at the 2018 Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society in Austin TX, a Symposium [link]  honored Dr. Peter J. Webster for his seminal contributions to the study of tropical dynamics and monsoons.  [link to full News Release]

Climate Forecast Applications Network predicts above normal 2018 Atlantic hurricane season 

(Reno NV, 19 December 2017) Scientists at Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) have identified a breakthrough in understanding of the long-range impact of global climate dynamics on Atlantic hurricane activity.  [link]

Causes and Predictability of the Exceptionally Active

2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season 11/30/17

How predictable was the extremely active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season?  CFAN has prepared a report that is a ‘hindsight’ analysis of the causes of the exceptionally active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season.  Late-summer hurricane activity responds to processes that tend to evolve slowly over months, allowing probabilistic forecasts to be made 1 to 2 seasons ahead, and perhaps even earlier.  [link]

CFAN’s President on hurricanes and climate change  9/22/17

Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria have reignited the public debate on hurricanes and global warming.  But was there anything unusual about these extreme weather events? And can we detect a human influence on these storms? [link]

Hurricane Irma eyes Florida 9/8/17

(Reno, NV)  Cat 5 Hurricane Irma is one for the record books; it’s eye is on Florida.  Irma is predicted to strike the SW coast of Florida as a Cat 4 early Sun a.m., with a northward track covering the entire length of the state and into Georgia. [link]

The success of long-range forecasts for Hurricane Harvey  8/27/17

(Reno, NV)  The 12 year drought of major hurricane landfalls in the U.S. is over, with catastrophic impacts in Texas.  Predictions of Hurricane Harvey illustrate the realization of extended- and long-range hurricane forecasts. [link]

CFAN continues to predict an active Atlantic hurricane season

(Reno, NV) Climate Forecast Applications Network’s latest forecast continues to predict an active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. [link]

CFAN predicts an active hurricane season with 3 U.S. landfalls

Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) predicts an active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season.  [link]

CFAN's President testifies at House Science Committee Hearing

Judith Curry testifies at the House Science Committee Hearing -- Climate Science: Assumptions, Policy Implications and the Scientific Method. [link]

 

Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) will be at the Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society

CFAN will be at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society in Seattle Jan 22-26. [link]

 

CFAN's temperature forecast verification statistics for Q3

CFAN’s OmniCast product is now providing real time verification statistics for each city in our 15 day City Temperature Forecast product. [link]

Peter Webster receives International Water Prize

The prize is awarded for Webster’s work in providing forecasts of monsoonal floods that often provoke catastrophic inundations in highly populated coastal regions. [link]

New forecast scheme for heat stress in cotton

A new paper published in the Agronomy Journal by CFAN team members presents a strategy for producing probabilistic heat stress forecasts for well-watered cotton [link]

 

New initiative to improve subseasonal forecasts 

CFAN has been awarded a grant from the NOAA SBIR program to improve subseasonal weather forecasts.  [link]

In the News

9/14/19  Hey CEO’s, have you hugged your uncertainty monster lately? – Wall Street Journal

“Let’s consider for a moment that the Uncertainty Monster, as climate scientist Judith Curry refers to it” [link]

 

9/10/19 Don’t Overhype the Link between Climate Change and Hurricanes – National Review

Op-ed by CFAN’s President Judith Curry [link]

 

9/5/19  Trum said ‘almost all models predicted’ Dorian would hit Alabama.  He’s wrong – Politifact

“The 'spaghetti tracks' from the forecast model are useful for hurricane forecasters to consider," said Judith Curry, an atmospheric scientist and founder of the Climate Forecast Applications Network. "But they are easily misinterpreted by the public."  [link] 

 

9/2/19 Predicting the next recession – Washington Times

“Fortunately, there are atmospheric scientists like renowned Judith Curry who are able to take cutting-edge weather and climate research and turn it into products that actually improve forecast accuracy.” [link]

 

8/26/19  Can a nuclear bomb stop a hurricane?  No, that’s a myth that has persisted for decades – Politifact

“There is the massive possibility of unintended consequences associated with any modifications," said Judith Curry [link]

7/23/19 We should prepare for extreme weather but tying it to extreme weather is a mistake – Financial Post

“Dr. Curry writes that attributing extreme weather to manmade climate change can keep us from understanding the variability of extreme weather events and reducing our vulnerability to them.” [link]

 

7/16/19 Report predicts ‘killer heat’ in Georgia, elsewhere in coming decades – Atlanta Journal Constitution

 “the perception of extreme weather events as being more frequent or intense and caused by man-made global warming is symptomatic of what Judith Curry calls “weather amnesia.” [link]

Winter, 2019 Climate science's myth buster - City Journal

It's time to be scientific about global warming, says climatologist Judith Curry.  [link] 

12/27/18 Climatologist counters climate disaster predictions with sea level report - Washington Times.

"For years, climate prognosticators have warned that human-caused global warming is fueling catastrophic sea-level rise, but now climatologist Judith Curry is rocking their boat." [link]

9/19/18  Scientists Throw Cold Water on Claims Linking Hurricane Florence to Global Warming - Daily Caller

." . . convincingly attributing any of this to human caused global warming is very challenging” - Judith Curry  [link]

Cayman Financial Review:  Predictability of Atlantic Hurricanes 8/16/18

Article by CFAN President Judith Curry  [link]

Forbes:  Are we seeing an unusual number of natural disasters in 2017? 10/3/17 

"My favorite quote from my climate scientist hero, Judith Curry, is, “hurricanes are too complex to be explained by the simple thermodynamic reasoning that I heard from climate scientists following Hurricane Harvey.”  [link] 

WaPo: These scientists want 'red teams' to challenge climate research.  Congress is listening. 3/29/16

“Playing ‘devil’s advocate’ helps a scientist examine how their conclusions might be misguided and how they might be wrong. Overcoming one’s own biases is difficult; an external devil’s advocate can play a useful role in questioning and criticizing the logic of the argument.” - Judith Curry [link]

 

3 Kickass Women Leading the Fight Against Climate Change  11/10/16 [link]

"Curry is a huge proponent of free speech, open discussion, and transparency within the climate change debate.

Financial Post:  Trump's great climate change 'hoax' is that he talks like a pretty green president, after all 11/21/16  [link]

Op-ed by Judith Curry

These scientific breakthroughs could help address the world's biggest water problems 11/6/16 [link]

"Within about nine hours, a village somewhere in Bangladesh gets this forecast that the river will rise or fall in the next 15 days, and we also tell them what the probability will be," Webster told Mashable at the awards gala.

PowerMag: An Engineering Critique of Climate Policy  6/2/16 [link]

Judy Curry commented, “When I have spoken with engineers at Georgia Tech, nearly all of them question the feasibility of a rapid transition away from fossil fuels”

 

PhysicsToday:  Science and journalism revisit the attribution of extreme weather to climate change 3/23/16  [link]

Judith Curry: “More comprehensive analysis of regional extreme events  in the context of known modes of natural climate variability is probably the single most useful thing that could be done in this regard.”

 

Financial Post: Unnatural consensus on climate change  12/29/15  [link]

Op-ed by Judith Curry

 

A disaster foretold  3/23/15  [link]

In the case of the [Pakistan floods] in 2012 and 2013, the forecast was actually made and an alert sent to the authorities in Pakistan by Webster’s team.

 

Warming pause is real, say top scientists 2/27/15  [link]

US climate scientist Judith Curry said the significance of the paper was enhanced by the list of authors, many of whom had played leading roles in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 

 

Financial Post: An Unsettled Climate for Climate Summit 9/22/14  [link]

Op-ed by Judith Curry

 

WSJ:  Global warming statistical meltdown 10/9/14  [link]

Op-ed by Judith Curry

 

OilPrice.com: The Kardashians and Climate Change:  Interview with Judith Curry 8/20/14  [link]

“The debate is polarized in a black-white yes-no sort of way, which is a consequence of oversimplifying the problem and its solution.”

 

WaPo: Typhoon and hurricane storm surge disasters are unacceptable 11/12/13  [link]

Webster recommended poor countries take the following steps to improve their ability to prepare for and respond to weather disasters.

 

NYTimes: Global Study of Monsoons Finds Ocean Variations Have Driven Recent Shifts  3/22/13  [link]

Scientists comment on a new paper coauthored by Peter Webster