CFAN has developed innovative heat and cold wave forecasts to support energy trading and decision making to minimize human stress.
Heat waves are a great problem in the pre-monsoon rainy season in South Asia. In order to optimize health and municipal services, CFAN provides the Ahmedabad Municipal Council in India with probabilities of the exceedance of a series of threshold temperatures and heat stress index. Each threshold is associated with an attendant public plan and the probability of exceedance allowed the officials to determine the risk and decide whether or not to take action. These forecasts are made available via an interactive web site available to the city workers, council and (through secondary channels) the public at large.
CFAN also provides forecasts of the heat stress index, which also incorporates the effects of humidity.
For the energy sector, heat wave and cold events are defined using a ‘peaks over threshold’ approach, whereby a daily maximum or minimum surface temperature exceeds either a location-specified threshold or is 1.5 standard deviations above or below the 30-year average temperature for that day. Probabilities of heat waves and cold events are provided out to 4 weeks for key cities that drive energy markets.
Extended-range outlooks examine each individual ensemble member for an extreme event. The likelihood of extreme event is assessed by clustering the ensemble predictions of 500 hPa geopotential height and teleconnection regimes, and assessing the early forecast skill of the cluster.