CFAN, Climate Forecast Applications Network, LLC.

                                                       © 2019.  All Rights Reserved 

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 Telephone:  USA  +1.404.803.2012

 Email:  info@cfanclimate.com 

Company

Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) develops innovative weather and climate forecast tools to help our clients manage weather and climate risks. CFAN was founded in 2006 by Judith Curry and Peter Webster and launched under Georgia Tech’s Enterprise Innovation Institute VentureLab program.

 

Choosing a provider of weather and climate solutions is a strategic decision that can help you achieve your mission and goals. So, why is CFAN the right choice? What makes CFAN different?

  • CFAN’s scientific team members are world leaders in research on extended range prediction of weather and extreme weather events. 

  • Our active engagement in research enables rapid diffusion of the latest research and model developments into our forecast products. 

  • Even the best forecasts are uncertain - we provide critical information about accuracy and uncertainty that helps you improve outcomes as you manage weather and climate risks.

  • Our team works continually with clients to develop new products to address their most challenging problems and lucrative opportunities.

 

A true synergy between research, forecasts, and decision support produces a culture of innovation and client support that is unique among weather and climate forecast providers.

 

Leadership

CFAN’s research team develops innovative weather and climate tools that are leading the way in forecasting across many weather-critical applications. Our team of operational meteorologists is on hand 24/7/365 to deliver the highest-quality support and analysis. CFAN’s consultants provide broad expertise in information technology, decision support, business, law, economics and policy.

CFAN’s leadership team includes:

Judith Curry

President and Founder 

Judith Curry is President and co-founder of CFAN.  Following an influential career in academic research and administration, Curry founded CFAN to translate cutting-edge weather and climate research into forecast products that support the mitigation of weather and climate risk for public and private sector decision makers.

Curry received a Ph.D. in atmospheric science from the University of Chicago and B.S. in Meteorology from Northern Illinois University. She has held faculty positions at the Georgia Institute of Technology, the University of Colorado Boulder, Penn State University, and Purdue University.  She is a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and the American Geophysical Union.

Curry is actively engaged at the intersection of science and public policy. She has recently served on the NASA Advisory Council Earth Science Subcommittee, the DOE Biological and Environmental Research Advisory Council and the National Academies Climate Research Committee and the Space Studies Board. She is frequently called upon to give Congressional testimony and serve as an expert witness on matters related to weather and climate.

Peter Webster

Chief Scientist and Founder

Peter Webster is Chief Scientist and co-Founder of CFAN. His research spans tropical atmospheric and ocean large-scale climate dynamics.  Recently, he has focused on developing flood, heat wave, and tropical cyclone forecasts for the monsoon regions in South Asia, and has actively engaged in working with developing countries and development banks to support tactical adaptation strategies using forecasted extreme weather events.

Webster received a Ph.D. in Meteorology from MIT.  He has held faculty positions at Georgia Institute of Technology, University of Colorado, Penn State University and the University of Washington. Webster is a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union, the American Meteorological Society, the Royal Meteorological Society and the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and recently served as President of the American Geophysical Union Atmospheric Sciences Section.

Webster’s research has been recognized by the Jule Charney Award and the Carl Gustav Rossby Research Medal from the American Meteorological Society, the Adrian Gill Award and Mason Gold Medal from the Royal Meteorological Society, and the International Award from the American Geophysical Union, and the International Prize for Water.

Violeta Toma

Vice President, Forecast Product Development

Violeta Toma oversees all of CFAN's forecast product development.  She leads the overall effort for CFAN’s temperature forecast products, including CFAN’s innovative products that predict heat waves, cold waves, and heat stress.  She is also the lead the for CFAN’s subseasonal and seasonal forecasts.

Prior to joining CFAN in 2010, she was an air quality consultant at Trinity Consulting. Her expertise included Air Dispersion Modeling, New Source Review (NSR) permitting and regulatory applicability analyses for a variety of industries including Renewable Electricity Generation.  Prior to coming to the U.S., Toma was a Meteorologist at the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Romania.

Toma received a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from Georgia Tech.  B.S. and M.S. in Earth and Atmospheric Physics, University of Bucharest.

 
 

Success Stories

CFAN’s products represent the intersection of advanced research and decision support technologies with client needs and opportunities. The following examples illustrate how CFAN has developed products to respond to client needs and opportunities. 

Weather and Climate Forecasts in Support of Energy Marketing, Sales, and Trading

CFAN developed OmniCast (based on ECMWF forecast products) on an exclusive basis in response to the needs of a major client in the petroleum industry for extended range, better-than-market weather forecasts to support energy trading, sales and marketing. After the catastrophic 2004/2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons, the client perceived a strong advantage to having an exclusive, extended-range tropical cyclone forecast product to anticipate disruptions to energy supply, drilling, refining and transport activities. CFAN responded to this challenge by translating its advanced tropical cyclone research into an innovative forecast product for North Atlantic hurricanes, which became operational in 2007. In particular, this product provided the first model-based probabilistic forecasts of tropical cyclone formation and pre-genesis tracks. During 2008, with Hurricanes Ike and Gustav having major impacts on the production region in the Gulf, CFAN’s forecasts were also used for operations, emergency management and business continuity.

Building upon the success of our hurricane forecast product, CFAN responded to the challenge from our client to provide extended-range forecasts of surface weather for the main energy markets in the U.S. and Europe using ECMWF forecast products. In 2009, CFAN's product suite was expanded to include daily, weekly and seasonal forecasts for the U.S. and Europe of surface temperature, heat wave and cold events, and 100 m wind forecasts. In 2011, we developed probabilistic forecasts of streamflow and hydropower for the Columbia River Basin in response to an opportunity perceived by our client.  CFAN continues to develop new products for this client, in response to their evolving needs and opportunities.  In 2013, CFAN’s OmniCast forecast products became available to energy traders through a license agreement with The Weather Company, an IBM Business.

Climate Forecast Applications in Bangladesh (CFAB)

Every few years, major floods engorge the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers for periods ranging from a few days to a month or more, often displacing tens of millions of people and devastating agricultural production.  With funding from USAID and CARE, CFAN developed an extended-range probabilistic flood forecasting system for the Ganges and Brahmaputra (on time scales from days to 6 months) to predict the probability that river water level heights will exceed critical levels. The CFAB project began in 1999, and the flood forecast system became operational in 2003 for the Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers. In 2007, a new experimental dissemination program brought warnings directly via a cell phone network to more than 100,000 residents in five rural provinces in Bangladesh. On the basis of these forecasts, entire areas were evacuated ahead of the floods. Early harvesting of some crops occurred and livestock and belongings were saved. In 2010, the flood forecasting technology was transferred to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department. More information [link]

Predicting hurricane landfall impacts in Florida 

Florida was struck by 8 hurricanes during 2004/2005, with catastrophic impacts. CFAN’s early and accurate forecast of Hurricane Sandy in 2012 was presented in a series of 3 webinars organized by Earth Networks, each of which was attended by over 400 individuals from the energy sector.  Following these webinars, an electric power provider in Florida perceived an opportunity to use CFAN’s tropical cyclone forecasts as part of their strategy to mitigate disruption of the electricity supply from landfalling hurricanes. In response to their need for high-resolution probabilistic wind speeds to estimate outages, CFAN developed a customized high-resolution (5 km) probabilistic hurricane wind forecasts. CFAN’s predictions of landfall impacts of hurricane winds use an adaptive statistical-dynamical technique to statistically downscale the coarse resolution surface winds from both the ECMWF and NOAA NCEP ensembles.  CFANs forecasts are being used to drive outage models to help manage and recovery from the hurricane impacts, particularly with regards to emergency crew placement. CFAN’s forecasts helped the client support the rapidly restore power following Hurricanes Hermine and Matthew in 2016.

Heat wave forecasts for Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India

Heat waves are an immense problem in South Asia during the pre-monsoon rainy season. In partnership with the National Resource Defense Council (NRDC), CFAN developed a product to provide probabilistic heat stress forecasts out to 8 days for Ahmedabad to optimize health and municipal services. This forecast product provides probabilities of the exceedance of a series of threshold temperatures and heat stress index. The Ahmedabad Municipal Council receives probabilities of the exceedance of a series of threshold temperatures and heat stress index. Each threshold is associated with an attendant public plan and the probability of exceedance allowed the officials to determine the risk and decide whether or not to take action. These forecasts are then made available via an interactive web site available to the city workers, council and (through secondary channels) the public at large. More information [link]

Projected Economic Impacts of Hurricanes in Latin America 2020-2025

As part of a World Bank project to assess the potential consequences of climate destabilization in Latin America, CFAN conducted an assessment of the potential economic impacts of hurricanes during the period 2020-2025.  CFAN developed scenarios for the statistics of landfalling tropical cyclones for different regions in Latin America for a five-year period ca. 2020–2025, accounting for the impacts of both natural variability and global warming on tropical cyclone frequency, intensity, and the cyclone tracks. The hurricane projections were combined with projections of population and GNP and damage estimates from past hurricanes to estimate the future risk of hurricane damage in each of the regions. These estimates of future hurricane damage included exposure to hazard, the frequency or severity of the hazard, and the vulnerability of exposed elements. The projections of hurricane damage were interpreted in the context of country vulnerability indices.  These projections were used to guide World Bank investments in specific countries that would have the greatest impact on reducing losses and increasing resilience.  More information:  [link]