OmniCast provides daily maximum and minimum temperature forecasts out to 15 days for 330 cities in the continental U.S. CFAN’s point temperature solution applies a sophisticated calibration model to each ensemble member of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Our calibration model uses the ECMWF calibration reforecasts and recent forecast performance history.
CFAN’s daily forecast for each city is color coded to show the deviation from the 10 year or 30 year climatology for that date, allowing a quick interpretation of forthcoming periods that are warmer or colder than climatology.
For each city, uncertainty in the forecast is visually represented by an anomaly plume diagram that represents the ensemble members in an inter-percentile plume.
Further insights into forecast uncertainty are provided by a table that compares the forecast for each day:
ECMWF ensemble mean forecast, adjusted using only the reforecasts
ECMWF ensemble mean forecast (raw)
ECMWF high resolution forecast (raw)
NCEP GFSX forecast
Real-time verification statistics are provided for each city, for each daily leadtime. Verification statistics are provided for the past 15 days, past 30 days, and past 90 days.
Quarterly verification statistics for the U.S. Jul/Aug/Sept 2016 :