Assessment Projects

Future impacts of hurricanes in the Caribbean and Mesoamerica 


Assessing the future impact of hurricanes on Mesoamerica and the Caribbean After the devastation of the 2004 and 2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons and heightened concern about increasing hurricane activity and severity in the future, concerns were raised regarding the impact of hurricanes on development activity in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean. CFAN conducted an impact assessment that utilized decadal projections of landfalling tropical cyclones for Mexico, Central America and the Yucatan, Bahamas, Lesser Antilles, and Greater Antilles, accounting for the impacts of both natural variability and global warming on tropical cyclone frequency, intensity, and the cyclone tracks. The hurricane projections, combined with projections of population and GNP, were used with damage estimates from past hurricanes to estimate the future risk of hurricane damage in each of the 5 regions. CFAN's impact assessment report is being used to guide investments in the region by development banks to reduce vulnerability to future hurricane landfalls and also in the revision of building codes for government buildings. Download Report



Impact of extreme events on regional stability for South Asia 


From report prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense. - The Office of the Secretary of Defense funded CFAN to assess natural disaster and climate change impact threats in South Asia - Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh and India. The objectives of project were to relate CFAN's regional weather and climate predictive capability to a comprehensive regional analysis of weather hazards and climate impacts as security threat accelerants, and to address how effective use of this predictive capability could proactively reduce the threat acceleration associated with these events. This section highlights the interplay between security and uncertainty in a number of South Asian nations across areas that are highly susceptible to climate change impacts: food security, energy, and water resources. Climate, weather, and hydrologic forecasting tools can be highly applicable to increasing predictability and reducing uncertainty regarding these areas. As a result, these tools are of significant use to U.S. operational commanders, as well as policy-makers, in proactively responding to threats as they are developing. Download Report



Integrated assessment of the 2010 Pakistan floods 


From report prepared for World Bank. - In preparation for a major World Bank project in Pakistan, CFAN prepared a comprehensive analysis of the flooding of the Indus River system in Pakistan during the summer and autumn of 2010. This event represented not only a humanitarian disaster on a cataclysmic scale, but also a significant threat to U.S. security interests. The destruction wrought by the 2010 floods could set Pakistan back years or even decades, weaken its struggling civilian administration and add to the burdens on its military, distracting from its efforts to keep the Pakistani Taliban in check. Our analysis examined the causes and impacts of the floods, including how the floods have acted as a threat accelerant to an already unstable nation. The report illustrated how a probabilistic forecasting scheme can help reduce some of the threat accelerant components of natural disasters. Download Report



Projections of future U.S. landfalling hurricanes


To assess the future U.S. risk from Atlantic landfalling hurricanes in the coming years, we must assess the impact of global warming and natural variability on the number, intensity and tracks of hurricanes. Local risks must then be assessed from storm surges, extreme winds, flash floods, and landslides and interpreted in the context of the local socioeconomic vulnerability associated with emergency management plan, building codes, and societal infrastructures. For a client in the reinsurance sector, CFAN provided an assessment of future U.S. landfalling hurricane risk for the following individual regions: Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Florida, Gulf, and Texas. Download Report



Building resilience for sustainable development of the Sunderbans  


Working with a team from the World Bank, CFAN participated in an assessment report to support socioeconomic development under future uncertain conditions, with the context of the very certaint impacts of past events and current conditions that keep people trapped in poverty – the cost of environmental damage and health effects is as high as 10% of Sunderban’s gross domestic product, and many socioeconomic and biophysical tipping points have already been exceeded.  The report includes a menu of policy options to address the uncertainty in the future that would contribute to improving overall social and ecosystem resilience.  Download Report